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European Journal of Cardio-Thoracic Surgery, Vol 10, 641-648, Copyright © 1996 by European Association for Cardio-thoracic Surgery

ARTICLES

A prospective risk analysis of contemporary thoracic surgery

R Forster, S Toth, K Redmann, A Heinecke and HH Scheld
Department of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery, Westfalische Wilbelms University, Munster, Germany.

OBJECTIVE: The results of surgical therapy can only be accurately judged if the patients' characteristics and their impact on the outcome are known. The purpose of this study was to identify the risk factors of contemporary thoracic surgery, which could serve as a basis for a risk-matched comparison of different surgical techniques. METHODS: The data of 15 patients' undergoing thoracic surgery were prospectively documented. The outcome of the various operative procedures applied was statistically correlated with the access procedure, sex, age, body mass, dignity of underlying disease and six concomitant diseases. RESULTS: Four patients died within 30 days of surgery (mortality: 2.6%). Morbidity comprising all complications (class I) and morbidity comprising only complications of consequence for postoperative therapy (class II) rose with the number of concomitant diseases (50%/0% with no concomitant disease, 89%/33% with more than three concomitant diseases). Univariate testing identified malignant disease (P = 0.002), male sex (P = 0.003), body mass index of less than 20 and more than 27 kg/m of the expected level according to the Quetelet rule (P = 0.013) and a combination of concomitant respiratory and cardiocirculatory disease (P = 0.022) as being associated with class I morbidity. Male sex was significantly coincident with class II morbidity (P = 0.020). Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that these characteristics also had independent influence on class I morbidity (P = 0.022, P = 0.001, P = 0.023, P = 0.028). CONCLUSION: It is concluded that these characteristics are important predictors of morbidity of thoracic surgery. If a non-randomized comparison of the outcome of thoracic operations or different access strategies like thoracotomy or thoracoscopy is intended, at least these patient features should be documented and used as a basis for matching pairs.

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